![]() ![]() Demographically, Kenya looks something like South Korea in the mid-1970s, as its economy was beginning a historic rise. Women had an average of eight children 50 years ago, but only just over three last year. It’s because politically it’s so difficult to react.”Īs in many young countries, birth rates in Kenya have declined drastically in recent years. But they do,” said Mikko Myrskylä, director of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. “All of these changes should never surprise anyone. And even as they age, rich countries will enjoy economic advantages and a high standard of living for a long time.īut the economic logic of age is hard to escape. Without jobs, having a lot of working-age people can drive instability rather than growth. More women tend to enter the workforce, compounding the economic boost.ĭemography isn’t destiny, and the dividend isn’t automatic. Adults with smaller families have more free time for education and investing in their children. When birthrates fall, countries can reap a “demographic dividend,” when a growing share of workers and few dependents fuels economic growth. The opportunity for many poorer countries is enormous. People are living longer, healthier lives and having fewer children as they get richer. In many respects, the aging of the world is a triumph of development. The shift could reshape economic growth and geopolitical power balances, experts say. Soon, the best-balanced workforces will mostly be in South and Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, according to U.N. Those countries are already aging off the list. Their large workforces have helped to drive their economic growth. This is a sea change for Europe, the United States, China, and other top economies, which have had some of the most working-age people in the world, adjusted for their populations. And today’s wealthier countries will almost inevitably make up a smaller share of global gross domestic product, economists say. Extraordinary numbers of retirees will be dependent on a shrinking number of working-age people to support them.Īs a result, experts predict, things many wealthier countries take for granted - like pensions, retirement ages, and strict immigration policies - will need overhauls to be sustainable. That’s almost twice the share of older adults in Florida, America’s retirement capital. The projections are reliable and stark: By 2050, people ages 65 and older will make up nearly 40% of the population in some parts of East Asia and Europe. China is shrinking, overtaken this year by the much younger India as the most populous country.īut what we’ve seen so far is just the beginning. The world’s demographics have already been transformed. Can they take advantage of the opportunity? The aging of populations in rich countries will mean economic opportunities in the developing world.Īt the same time, many low-income countries today will have huge prime-age labor forces for the first time. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |